published @ The Jakarta Post
Prevailing wisdom says that leaders have to be consistent and stay the course. President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama are easily deemed to be hypocrites as they change their minds. However, in many (political) situations, changing one’s mind might be the best option to survive and reach the ultimate goal.
Recently, there were two big events that showed the reality of Indonesian politics. First, in the recent Cabinet reshuffle, Jokowi embraced two more major political parties in the coalition through appointing Golkar Party and National Mandate Party (PAN) figures as ministers. Second, Ahok threw in the hat by accepting the support of political parties in the Jakarta gubernatorial election. These moves are in contrast with their previous stances.
In his presidential campaign, Jokowi boasted a slim coalition and Ahok, supported by Teman Ahok, declared that he would run in the election as an independent candidate.
Many, myself included, never cast doubt on President Jokowi’s and Governor Ahok’s integrity. And in these cases they were right to change their positions. To me, they have to stay in power because their leadership is badly needed. They have ushered in a new kind of government that serves the people.
On paper, although impeachment is legal, a president can hardly be unseated. But Indonesian politicians are reckless and unpredictable. With their power and track records, they do anything to pursue their own interests.
Worse, President Jokowi’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) frequently opposes his policies, the latest being its rejection of the tax amnesty bill. That’s why Jokowi expanded the coalition to defend his policies and safeguard his presidency.
In a similar vein, Ahok finally chose to run under the banner of political parties as the latter would do anything to invalidate the million vote pledges his volunteers collected for him. Although overwhelmingly leading in many polls, Ahok may have been unable to contest the election because of administrative matters. So embracing political parties was a safe option.
Do great leaders change their minds? Abraham Lincoln, one of American greatest presidents, kept changing his. Once he said: “[…] as soon I discover my opinions to be erroneous, I shall be ready to renounce them.”
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published @ The Jakarta Post
The unfolding chaos in Iraq is very similar to biological processes in nature. A book entitled Serengeti Rules — The Quest to Discover How Life Works and Why It Matters by Sean B. Carroll, a molecular biologist, which was recently published, is unlikely to be able to explain the Iraq war. Serengeti is a national park located in Tanzania and Kenya. In the early 1960s, the park saw a rapid explosion of buffalo, wildebeest and giraffe. After analyzing data, biologists concluded that the cause was rinderpest, a virus that kills cattle, wildebeest and buffalo. After the outbreak of rinderpest, an eradication campaign in the 1950s succeeded in reducing cases of rinderpest.
There appeared to be a correlation between rinderpest and the rise and fall of wildebeest and buffalo. When rinderpest is down, wildebeest and buffalo are up, vice versa. This gives us some idea of the Serengeti Rules, which are relevant to the Iraq war.
First, elements/players in ecosystem/societies correlate with each other following certain rules. The change of one element can be followed by the rapid change of other elements. Saddam Hussein was in only one element in Iraqi society. The ramification of Saddam’s removal lead to the rise of ISIS and a Sunni-Shiite sectarian war.
Second, Saddam to Iraq is like wildebeest to Serengeti Park. They are keystone of society/ecosystem. The keystone (species) is the most important element in ecosystem. The change of keystone results in the change of whole elements in society/ecosystem.
Third, repressors play a key role in the existence of elements. The population of wildebeest and buffalo is regulated or in this case suppressed by the existence of rinderpest as a repressor. In a similar vein, Sunni-Shiite conflict and the rise of radical groups is regulated by the existence of a dictator. An understanding of biology will enrich the insight of policymakers and help them avoid simplistic solutions that bring about disastrous consequences.
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