Lessons Learned from AFF Cup 2010

Yes, we definitely lost to Malaysia in a bid to grasp the AFF Cup. However from biannual ASEAN countries' soccer tournament, many things can be drawn as lessons learned for improvement.

Time for Blame Game

Malaysia has dashed our hopes by thrashing us with 3-0 victory on Sunday in Bukit Jalil, Malaysia. Despite laser beam incident, they have played a good game, while our team not in their best performance. Then to whom must we blame on? We direly need a scapegoat now.

Indonesia vs. Malaysia

George Orwell: serious sport … is war minus the shooting.

It has never been like this, we look forward to the soccer final with great expectation. If you see our TV, the Indonesia's team goals footage is aired repeatedly. AFF Cup is nothing more than regional competition which is less prestigious than Asian Cup not to mention World Cup. However if you have no achievement for a long time and once you get it again, then it will be mesmerizing occurrence.

Indonesia’s Got Talent

At last all we want is the mission is accomplished, the goal is achieved, and the target is done at all cost and by any means.

The Rise of Smart Government

In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Singapore has outstripped Malaysia. Even though Malaysia is more democratic than Singapore. In terms of various economic performances China is the best in the world and on the way to catch up the world's largest economy, United States (US). And US is the democracy guru with glamour presidential election compared to Chinese single party clout. Surprisingly, we see the non-democratic countries outperform democratic countries. What's wrong with democratic country? Is democracy still the best idea to run the government? Or is there any new alternative replacing democratic system?

Mr. President, Intervene Now!

One thing I hate much about our president, SBY, is that he doesn't want to intervene the legal process. He said that as if he can do nothing against the bad guys corrupting our legal system. He let the 'system' limit Anggodo's case not to spread out to other corrupt legal officers. Now he will do the same to Gayus' case. After taking the helm for six years, he shows us feeble leadership.

Indonesia’s Good News

If I must choose what policy of President SBY considered the best, it will be economic corridor policy. The government is about to develop 6 (six) economic corridors all across Indonesia. Each corridor will focus on specific industry and the investors invited will be given business incentives. Through this belated initiative, we are upbeat on Indonesia's future.

America's Waning Power

Indonesia's President sent caveat to Malaysia's Prime Minister asking for slowing down their palm oil productivity. In the mean time Indonesia's President also sent the same message to Singapore's Prime Minister to stop innovating due to Indonesia has no such skills.

Is Indonesia Really New Economic Success Story?

As Indonesian I want to believe that Indonesia will equal China and India in terms of economic success story. However until now I never find out what is the best reason to believe this.

Indonesia’s Tourism and Economic Zones

If I were the president of Indonesia I would have focused on 2 (two) sectors to grow economy, namely: tourism and economic zones. Tourism should be developed because we have a lot of picturesque views, while economic zones developed because we have a lot of land. To capitalize on this opportunity, the development policy should focus on supporting 2 abovementioned developments. And given the vast area outer Java, this policy can be panacea. As the policy implemented and economic growth finds a new momentum, it can also solve the problem of development disparity between Java and outer Java.

American Unemployment

In the wake of economic crisis, American unemployment hovers over 10%. Many debates appear about why it happens and how to solve it.

Economic War

The world order is under the rule of developed countries. This premise should be understood well by developing countries. China – and not Iran or Venezuela– as the best pathway of developing country gives the best examples what can be done and how to deal with the America-defined world.

Too Much Freedom Will Kill You

We often presume that democracy is the final form of government. The ideal system is a group of people representing others to govern and making laws. And choosing our representatives and leaders are undertaken regularly by elections in certain time. We praise this as democracy, the ultimate state system.

To Govern is To Sell

The government has the full responsibility for the prosperity of its citizen. The prosperity attributes to people's incomes and government's revenue. Those incomes and revenues come from selling things! The more you can sell, let alone the added value ones, the more prosperous you will be.

Indonesia is A Learning Nation

Despite the low ranking of Human Development Index (HDI), 111 out of 182, Indonesians should be very proud to know that their top officials who manage this country like learning so much.

Indonesia’s Insufficient Economic Growth

For Indonesia or any developing country, economic growth is everything because it eventually reflects the prosperity of a country. After reaching the certain amount, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will not be the main goal. It happened in the developed countries where the growth often less than 3%, but it does not hurt the prosperity.

Spurring Innovation in Indonesia

The prosperity attributes to people’s income. People’s income stems from salary or wage. Salary or wage is determined by the value of products. The more added value products than the more prices they have.

300 kg iron is cheap but 300 kg iron in the form of luxury car will be very expensive. 2 decades ago only small number of manufacturers could produce cell-phones, but now even fledgling manufacturers in China can produce them. The ordinary cell-phones experience decreasing value. To increase the value, Research In Motion (RIM) of Canada created stunning Blackberry which focus on their friendly connection with internet, Apple created incredible I-Phone with amazing design and unique features.

The efforts to increase people’s income are the efforts to add value of products. And innovation is the key to this goal. All the government policy should ensure that the companies operating in its own territory pursuing innovation for their products continuously. The tenet is to innovate or die.

Innovation is the mixed ingredients of education, risk taker innovation, crazy venture capitalist, rules of law and others which cannot be identified. Yes, there is no certain recipe to nurture innovation. Despite the success of Silicon Valley, it cannot be copied to other place like Boston Route 128.

However, the main ingredient of innovation is the innovative products. And then the important thing to make them accepted by market. And there no one or shaman knows about the future innovative products. There is someone who dare to gamble investing in new product without knowing what will happen. That is venture capitalist in United States or even the government such as in Singapore.

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Given this facts, Indonesia has a great challenge to spur innovation in this country. The downside of our nation pertaining innovation is we have no passion to work hard to create new products, instead we prefer the easy way to buy the license.

We can compare the automobile development in Indonesia and Malaysia. Until now we have no national automobile industry. The most popular car in Indonesia, Toyota Kijang, still depends on Toyota technology. It seems it will last forever. In contrast since the beginning Malaysia developed Proton despite it was Mitsubishi. And Proton shows its independence by buying the majority stake of Lotus. So the Malaysian can combine the technology of Mitsubishi and Lotus to develop its own national car.

Another example is electronics manufacturers, National Gobel. Previously, it was national electronics company with national trade mark Tjawang. Unfortunately in order to increase its capacity, Gobel invited Japanese Manufacturer, National. Tjawang disappeared, so did the chance of national electronics trade mark.

I don’t know what kind of Indonesia’s government policy on innovation. Or do they have one?

We have PT. INKA producing trains, but why did the government still import used trains from Japan. It's very silly. The INKA's products might not be as good as Japanese products, but they should be encourage to improve their product by giving them sustainable contracts.

We have also national trade mark such as Polytron. The government should help them by buying their products and giving them incentive to conduct research and development. We have Maetrika who nurtures Indonesia’s innovative starts-ups companies. The government particularly state-owned companies should support these innovative products so that these start-ups have enough cash to conduct research and development and create new products.

The government does has responsibility to support the innovative companies. It is not against free market. Even in United States the innovative company such as Hewlett Packard had been given contracts from the US government.

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A Spirited Nation

There is a lessons learned from America who is grappling its declining superpower. Newsweek magazine places America as 11^th (not 1^st) best country in the world. In the wake of financial crisis and 2 unnecessary wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems America has lost everything. Apart from computer gadget and software, America has faced fierce competition, not only from the established nation like Japan, but now also from new emerging countries such as China and India.

Declining nation likely attributes to its education. The big budget American school reforms result in only meager success. The average students' test scores so this still-underperformed ability whereas the reforms had covered many aspect of education including the great teacher, institution improvement, better principal, better student-teacher ratio . The Washington Post economics columnist Robert Samuelson proposed another cause which is almost unmentionable: students shrinking motivation.

Thomas Friedman spelled out this low-level motivation as the consequence of disappeared threats. In the last century, Americans had a clear and present danger of depression, Nazi and Communism. Now all of them are gone, so Americans has less reason to work hard, develop innovation and sacrifice for the country.

As the threats are gone, so is the spirit.

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From this lessons learned, we come to conclusion that it is imperative for a nation to have a real challenge, a real problem to solve and a single theme to garner resources to achieve one goal. A threat should be renewed in each generation.

In Indonesia we have Bung Karno whom a great leader of our nation coining "Merdeka" (freedom) as the then-aspiration of the nation. It was a great success because different tribes, different languages across Dutch-administration Indonesia marched behind Bung Karno leadership. However Bung Karno failed to elevate to the next step to develop economy and modern institution of government. He cannot relinquish himself from the revolutionary tone even when we don't need it anymore.

To some extent, Pak Harto succeeded to coin "Pembangunan" (development) as a single theme during his long stint. Despite his weakness to control corruption and nepotism, he outperformed any Indonesia's presidents in terms of economy and national pride. Owing to Pak Harto, we inherited stability and cornerstone to develop.

In similar vein, Mahathir Mohammad of Malaysia has one thing describing his entire policy, to enhance Malay's standard of living. Deng Xiaoping struggled for decades to prove the socialism does exist and it is not the same with poverty.

So, a nation should encapsulate its challenges and create a simple theme to address them so that the whole components of nation: teachers, researchers, businessmen, government officers give their best to achieve the clear national goal.

Sources:

1. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/opinion/12friedman.html?ref=thomaslfriedman
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/05/AR2010090502817.html

The It-Should-Be Indonesia’s Path

According to CIA Factbook, 42.1% of Indonesian labors work in agriculture sector which makes up only 15.3 % of GDP. It is not good figure and wasting the potential labors. The Prebich-Singer Thesis tells that the manufactured goods value tends to increase against commodity value. If now you export 100 units of commodities then you will get 50 units of manufactured goods, in the future for the same level commodities can only be exchanged for less than 50.

It is because of income elasticity of demand for manufactured goods is greater than for commodities especially – food! The poor eats a plate of rice so does the rich. However the rich needs Blackberry, IPad, Kindle, whereas the poor can't afford them. As the income rise, we still eat a plate of rice, but our demand of manufactured goods will inevitably rise.

Given this fact, the urgent policy of Indonesia is to shift the low-waged labors of agriculture sector to higher-waged labors of industry and service sector.

Too many people work in limited area of agriculture resulting in low productivity. If the farmers-to-be work for industry then the few farmers has more agriculture area. Then the agriculture equipment industries should be grown to support the few farmers to manage their farmland. By doing this, the agriculture productivity will beef up and the farmers' income will rise.

Agriculture has ingrained the Indonesians but building industry is different story. Industry needs more skills and good education to support it. This sector is where the valued added products begin. It is not easy for the country like Indonesia to develop industries on its own efforts. Fortunately the globalization offers the great opportunity for developing country to develop the industry sector. Thanks to their success, the salary in developed countries rises to the level that cuts profits so that they have to relocate their industry for the lower-paid labors. The task for developing country is to lure the foreign direct investment. The best way is to prepare economic zones with superb infrastructure and without red tape. Indonesia should prioritize this.

The industrial workers will make money much more than the unproductive farmers. As the few farmers become more productive too, eventually the national income per capita will ramp up.

In a nutshell this is what Indonesia's government should do.

First, to shift massively most of farmers-to-be to industry sector. The rest of farmers will have more area to grow plants. The modernized farming using mechanical equipment should be introduced. The productivity and income of agriculture sector will increase.

Second, to thrive industry sector. The industry for the agriculture equipment is the first thing to do. And then prepared competitive economic zones to lure multi-national companies.

Third, to prepare the post industrial phase through innovation. It is the most difficult part to develop nation because it need skillful workers, best education and the right circumstances to nurture start-ups with new innovative products.

Leadership in Courage

Some leaders are remembered that last forever. They are adored by many fans across the border, across the race, across the cultures and across the time. As stated by many experts the difference between business-as-usual leader and inspiring leader is that the latter has courage to change the world. In details is that the true leader – during their time – is to put his extraordinary vision at stake. It means they take the risk of failure. And to do this courage, pertinacious, brave-heart is much needed.

The greatness of leader is attained when his idea has been successfully transformed into action and resulting in the great achievement. Only through this way we acknowledge and adore the leader.

Prophet Mohammad SAW was taking a great risk when he tried to elevate the Arabian from the marginal society to the civilized one. It was not the easy task, since the culture and people's mind had been ingrained for thousands of year. But he had reached his vision in his lifetime and moreover he changed the world by spreading the new value of life. Eventually many people in this world preserve his teaching to date.

Moreover there are many examples of leadership in our era. We will remember Deng Xiaoping, Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir, Pak Harto and Pak Habibie, not only because they had ever been state leaders, but they had done something risky to serve the country. Certainly some last in grace but some did not make it.

Deng Xiaoping took ideological risk to open and connect China to the rest of the world. He conducted trial and error to develop the first China special economic zone in small fishery village, Shenzen. It was a great success and the followed by other special economic zones and the rest is history. And now none can analyze Chineses success without mentioning Deng.

Lee Kuan Yew did not develop Singapore from scratch. It was the hub cities for regional area for decades. But had he had a great vision to make Singapore always relevant to the world's needs, Singapore would not have been attractive for foreigners to establish bases for regional services.

Mahathir Mohammad has a vision to make his Malay race to be better living. He envisioned to achieve the developed nation status in 2020. And the best lesson from Mahathir is that he developed Multimedia Super Corridor 1996 to address the progress of information technology. It a sharp mind and bold action of Mahathir because it is the high risk investment. But he insisted that the information technology is the strategic sector that Malaysia should embrace it from the very beginning. Thanks to Mahathir, Malaysia is now ready to shift from middle income country to the high income through the worker's skills in value added products.

In my opinion Pak Harto deserved Indonesian leader because of his merit to stabilize Indonesia after the politic turmoil. Upbringing as a farmer, Pak Harto succeeded to bring Indonesia self sufficient in rice production. Even he tried to expand paddy field in Central Kalimantan swamp area, but he failed. And However Pak Harto is a leader with vision and he had struggled to realize it. In similar vein Habibie is also our leader. He tried to develop Indonesia by embracing high technology such as aircraft. Even he failed to make profit from all his strategic industries, at least he had a vision and knew what to do for the country.

Does SBY fail? The Idul Fitri celebration will tell the truth

Colonel Adjie Suradji, defiant army officer, might be right about SBY, a feeble general who has no courage to make good for this country. Colonel Adjie has also a good point about courage. It is the respectful character that is praised much by one of American great president, John F Kennedy. In his Pulitzer winning book Profiles in Courage, he quoted Ernest Hemingway that courage is grace under pressure, to portray the courage of 8 US Senators in serving their country. Unfortunately SBY has no courage to solve our problem of enacting law. Apparently SBY let the evil power crush Corruption Eradication Commission by saying that he cannot interfere the police and prosecutor's duty. That's absolutely silly.

Despite courages, the downward of SBY leadership is no great vision. I fully understand that we cannot compare SBY with Pak Harto. Pak Harto has a vision because he has a lot of time to materialize his vision, whereas SBY only has 5 years to do it. However that is not an excuse for SBY because we see that he has many opportunities to show his greatness. We remember Bung Karno as a founding father, Pak Harto for Indonesia's development result, Habibie for his passion for technology. We can forgive Gus Dur and Megawati because they have too little time, but until now we will remember nothing of SBY's 10 year stint.

However the Colonel is absolutely wrong about the paragon of leadership. He took Evo Morales, Hugo Chaves, Ahmadinejad as exemplary leader. Certainly they are brave to defy the American superpower, but they have no strategic action to develop their countries which heavily depend on the wealth of natural resources. Instead of them, the Colonel should mention Deng Xiaoping, Lee Kuan Yew and Mahathir Mohammad.

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Back to the title, does SBY fail?

A friend of mine wrote his status on Facebook. He has compelling case to defend that SBY succeeds in developing this country. He said that should you go to the malls or even the traditional markets then you can see people stampede to buy everything for the Idul Fitri celebration. Without having money we cannot imagine how they can buy.

I told about this to my mother and after coming back from the near market she testified to me that my friend is right. Indonesian people, at least in my hometown do have enough money to buy food and clothes. So thanks to SBY administration people do afford Idul Fitri celebration.

Seeing this I am very upbeat of Indonesian future. We do have a lot of problems: rampant corruption, poor infrastructure, cumbersome bureaucracy, bad law enactment, etc. but until now we survive. We still have positive economic growth, and despite sometimes very disturbing, we can say have stability of democratic country.

Happy Idul Fitri 1431 H!

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Economic Integration First, Then Infrastructure Development

Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Hatta Rajasa was disillusioned with the infrastructure progress of Belawan Port. In 2006, the Infrastructure Summit had decided to improve that port, but until now it takes 6 days to load CPO into 20,000 deadweight ton vessel.

This case shows us that the government is not serious to develop this country's economy in terms of actions not words. We have a good plan or will, but have poorly execution. Given the fact that Indonesia is the world's biggest CPO producer and Belawan is the country's largest CPO seaport, the government wastes this competitive advantage.

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Indonesia ranks 75 out of 155 countries in terms of logistics performance index. The logistics cost 25% GDP while other countries such as Thailand 19%, US 10%, respectively. It is clearly an indication that we have high cost of logistics. Reportedly the shipping of 40-foot container from Padang to Jakarta cost USD 600 while form Jakarta to Singapore will cost USD 185. Unsurprisingly, the China's cheap fruit has been ubiquitous in Indonesia and it seems outnumbering the local fruit. The cow breeders in Lampung get a lower price of Californian corn than of Gorontalo.

There is a network problem to connect the component of goods transportation before assembled. It might be because of cumbersome and corrupted bureaucracy, dishonest government officer and poor network idea and plan.

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There 2 key issues concerning with our not-reflected-the-potential development, namely: economic integration and execution. Economic integration means to have economic output produced and delivered efficiently. It results the soaring price of domestic goods and services production. The success of best planning definitely depends on execution.

However before executing infrastructure, the integration issues have to be addressed first. It includes the issue of economic equity mainly the development of outer Java. It is flabbergasting to see many toll roads are being constructed in already-crowded Java Island despite many alternatives of transportation such as railway.

The government should focus on the economic cluster planning from upstream to downstream in continuous and efficient flow to produce cheaper products. After mapping the material or component flow, it should be followed by the best infrastructure.

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Calm Down Please

I don't like to see the recurring hatred of Indonesians towards Malaysians. I fully understand Malaysia is not a good boy. Several times it offends us as the last incident of detaining the Indonesian government officers who caught the Malaysian fishermen breaching Indonesian territory. And their response is always that the conflict is a trivial matter and the anger emerged only represents a few Indonesians.

However, the Indonesian protesters have done too much and disproportionate. Hurling faces to the Malaysian embassy, threatening the Malaysian travelers in Indonesia is primitive and childish actions.

Indonesians should realize that 2 million migrant workers creating incomes from Malaysia. Thanks to their prosperity so that Malaysians are absorbed in more added value jobs, whereas the lower jobs go to Indonesian jobless.

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Indonesia has to stop exacerbating this conflict. It is not only useless but wasting our energy to develop our country as well.

Even the lawmakers have lost their common sense by stating the military option addresing this "sibling rivalry". It is nonsense. We are not ready to wage war both technically and economically reasoning. Can our old and out-of-date plane go to war despite they often crashed without being shot by any enemy's bullet? Do we have budget to the military campaign whereas we need that money to develop our infrastructure, school, and people's heath?

Absolutely unexpected war between Malaysia and Indonesia will make suffer of both countries, particularly of Indonesian people. Without war, Indonesian people have been bombed by mismanaged-3 kg-LPG-canister explosion, now they want us to have other bombs from Malaysian army. What a miserable life will be!

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Frankly speaking, are we, Indonesians, jealous with Malaysians so we hate them so much?

Their income per capita is 3 times more than us (The World Factbook, GDP per capita Indonesia: USD 4.000, Malaysia: 14.900). The tourists come to Malaysia is 3 times more than to Indonesia (Wikipedia, World Tourism Rankings: Malaysia 23.6 million visitors in 2009, Indonesian Ministry of Tourism: 6.4 million visitors in 2009) . Petronas outdoes Pertamina in all business measurements (Forbes: in 2008 Petronas' asset: USD 125 million, Pertamina USD 25 million; Petronas: Twin Tower, Formula One Racing sponsor, Pertamina: ???). Although Indonesia is the world's biggest CPO producers, but Malaysia has more benefit from the CPO downstream products than us. Now Malaysia focuses on escaping middle income trap, while Indonesia still grapples with corruption, bad infrastructure and poverty. Malaysia is ready for bright future with new strategy of New Economic Model (NEM) replacing New Economic Policy (NEP) to achieve status of developed country through innovation, while Indonesia development direction will rely on who take the helm in every presidential election.

Indonesia should prioritize its economic development first. Indonesia should catch up the Malaysia's economic progress. Indonesia should compete Malaysia in terms of economy the way Koreans try to revenge humiliation of Japan in the past.

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Iran’s Useless Show Off

Does a country have dignity by developing sophisticated weapons?

In recent days the world is poured by a spate of news on Iran's newly launched military equipment. On Friday (20/8/2010) the Iranian military had successfully test-fired surface-to-surface missile dubbed Qiam. On Saturday (21/8/2010) Iran began with to put fuel rods into the Russian-built nuclear reactor. On Sunday (22/8/2010), Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unveiled a 1000 km-range bomber drone dubbed Karrar. On Monday (23/8/2010), again, Iran opened the production line of high speed assault boats dubbed Seraj (Lamp) and Zolfaghar (Imam Ali's sword). See, in four consecutive days Iran tried to mesmerize the world with its cutting-edge technology.

It is inarguable that Iran has got its deterrent factor. Iran is not as easy as Iraq and Afghanistan to conquer. Its archenemy – US and Israel – will think twice to wage a war against Iran. But whatever Iran show off, do not ever think that US and Israel cannot match or outdone Iran in making lethal weapon.

For the time being Iran will be safe. But what next can they do with the isolation of the US superpower? Do they have to insist not to have dialogue or play down their attitude to win the US' heart or at least US will let them play in the broader role in the world. I think Iranian leaders should think this in better perspective. Iran should learn other country's approach amid the hegemony of American-defined world.

China is the best paragon. The Chinese utterly do not bow to the Americans, but they are not deemed as an enemy by Americans. Thanks to Deng Xiaoping's vision, China embraces the western system of capitalism. China has put itself the world's economy network. The Chinese can export their production to anywhere in the world freely and the most important they can easily invite foreign company to invest, make production, and transfer their latest technology. And now China is the key player in world's economy and if China is attacked by any country then it will affect to the whole world.

The Iranians might ask, by doing this, do the Chinese have dignity facing the Americans?

Certainly the Chinese do have dignity in terms of cutting-edge weapon race. In 2007, China had successfully tested it anti-satellite missile. Previously, in 1996 it tested the first underground nuclear weapon. These are more than enough to tell the world that China is a very strong country. Imagine if the United States attacked and China would answer by shooting the America's satellite so that it can render their jet fighters' maximum capacity, guided missiles or any equipments relied on satellite useless.

Many of us, particularly if you are Moslem, dislike the arrogant Uncle Sam. However, any leaders should prioritize their people's prosperity. And for that purpose, there is no other better way except making friend with Uncle Sam. This is the Chinese recipe to address the arrogant Uncle Sam: embrace what prevails in the world system, do your best to bring the best to your country, not to make angry the temporary winner Uncle Sam, after connecting with the whole world for better and worse, sometimes you can show off you strength without any sanction at all.

SBY’s Third Term

Does SBY deserve for third term of presidential stint? Absolutely, he does not. Why? He has no breakthrough to develop Indonesia. Is SBY a bad president? Absolutely, he is not. To certain extent he is a good one. I believe he has integrity and passion to do good for the people. And in my opinion SBY does not pursue self interest from his presidency.

I criticize SBY the way Lebanese criticized UNIFIL, United Nation's peacekeeping troops in Lebanon. The critics of Lebanese societies against UNIFIL are that UNIFIL is perfectly function when there is no war. However, as conflicts appeared, UNIFIL is just bystanders. UNIFIL including Indonesian troops reportedly fled from a skirmish between Lebanese and Israeli forces.

Is it fair to compare SBY's inaction with UNIFIL's escape?

Let see the evil's backlash against KPK. Antasari got 18 years imprisonment as the trial had never truly proved him guilty. Surprisingly, the judges shrugged off the evidence that Nasrudin (the victim) and Sigit (allegedly murder's associate) taped Antasari prior to the killing of Nasrudin. I wonder why they needed to tape Antasari, the then KPK chief. Of course the laymen will ask what the record is for. Certainly some people had asked both of them to do this, but who are they? Why did the judges not ask further about this strange evidence? Two men taped the same person would have had strong intention such as conspiracy to topple the good-performance Antasari.

Moreover, the others KPK leaders, Bibit Samad Rianto and Chandra Hamzah have also been accused of bribery without any direct evidence. Even both the Police Chief and Attorney General had lied before the lawmakers on evidence. What a messy rule of law!

What do SBY do about this blatant crime? Nothing, just like UNIFIL. He only said it was the legal area that he had no intention and rights to interfere. That is definitely wrong attitude. Do nothing means to let somebody take charge to do anything as he wants. Not intervention means to let corruptors orchestrated the KPK' demise. The true reason is our president does not want to take risk in his second term by not doing anything that may backlash his presidency. He wants to play safe. By doing this, SBY will function perfectly – just like UNIFIL – when Indonesia is a law-established country like western country where the law is enacted in a true manner.

In economy SBY until now has neither legacy that we can remember. He does nothing in terms of economic breakthrough. He does everything like business as usual when we need groundbreaking program. We cannot boast of our product selling all across the world. We hardly boast our juggernauts because they are still too little. We have no showcases of our prosperous economic zones to invite more foreign direct investment. In a nutshell, there is no achievement at all in economy.

These are 2 points Indonesia needs the most, namely: (i) rule of law which everything is predictable, where the good guys prevails, where the law is abided by all citizens (ii) economy to answer what kind of industry we should develop and where should the specific industry thrive. SBY has no extra courage to enact the law and has no strategy or implementation to make achievement in economy.

SBY has a historic chance to do better so we will remember him as national hero who had done much to us. I hope he would realize that legacy which means quality of leadership is more important rather than the second or the third term.

Poverty Eradication

The government is very serious to eliminate poverty of Indonesia's people. I have been working for that program led by Vice President Secretariat and I conclude the program will not be very effective. The program did not address the real problem of poverty: low income!

People create incomes from working in the factories, selling goods and services such as merchants or doctors, entertaining people in TV show, etc. And the beginning of those things is the work of entrepreneur, private sectors. These entities are the true incomes creators. Low incomes appear from low added value products. And people with low incomes or no fixed incomes are poor people. That is poverty.

What is the government has to do?

Most of our people work as farmers. Do the farmers have more incomes than the worker in the factories? I guess they don't. Indonesia's farmer's productivity is low due to too much farmers for less irrigated farming. So the government should have focused on building more factories. Do we have resources to do this? I guess we don't. We have less spirited people of entrepreneurship. So the government should invite Foreign Direct Investment and develop more special economic zones. This strategy is very effective and very fast to make country prosper. We have many paragons such as China.

Until now I have seen no keen policy to enhance our industry sectors. And the industry contribution to Gross Domestic Product is declining. Indonesia lags behind the next rising star country, Vietnam, in terms of Foreign Direct Investment. The government seems pay no attention to promote special economic zones.
This is the upstream of the poverty problem that the government should have addressed since 30 years ago. And now president SBY's pro poor program is to do face-lift in the downstream.

Mr. President, Special Economic Zones will answer the poverty problem effectively.

Freedom

I love Indonesia very much. It is my beloved country. But until the nation's 65^th anniversary I never have a positive proud of Indonesia. It seems I love Indonesia just because I was born here and I have less choice to choose the citizenship.

As a nation we still fail to give meaning on freedom. Our leaders seem have ideas how to manage this country by our own after the independence dream came true. Since the beginning of independence, we underwent a kind of civil war and power struggle. The government cannot work because it was disturbed by other politicians who were chasing the helm. Bung Karno could not manage this mess and even Bung Karno himself created his own mess by being the lifetime Indonesian president.

Then Pak Harto came as a nation savior against communists. After taking office he managed to make stability in this country. It is his merit that this country for 30 years concentrated on economic development rather than politics. Yes, we had much progress during Pak Harto's stint. We should praise him for promoting the best Indonesian scholars to plan and execute the development. Thanks to oil natural source and its high price, Pak Harto had abundant funds to finance the development. However, natural resources-based development was susceptible to price change. And at last the moment of truth came. The development was out of steam as the oil price tumbled. It turned out the economic development was baseless and easily swept by speculators. At last Pak Harto himself was ousted by his own people.

In the wake of financial crisis, Indonesia embraced democracy. And the state orientation went back to Bung Karno era, politics before economy. As a result we see more politics drama rather than economic development. Rampant corruptions, messy and powerless government, indifferent leaders, rising sectarian groups are parts of country's picture after 65 year independence.

Whatever happens this is our country and we have no choice, except to fix it at our own disposal.

Malaysia’s Middle Income Trap and Us

The difference between Indonesia and Malaysia is the main issue arouse nowadays. Indonesia is still grappling with poverty, while Malaysia is talking about middle income trap. Indonesia is still facing the developing country’s basic problem, while Malaysia is aiming to join the elite group of developed countries.

To some extent, certainly Indonesia and Malaysia have similar initial condition to build their country in the wake of their independence from Western imperialism. On the onset both countries rely on the trade of abundant commodities to develop their countries. Both countries also invited foreign direct investment luring the investor with economic zones, tax holiday and low-waged workers. In 1990s the result was less different, both countries were dubbed as Asian miracles. It was 1998 financial crisis, revealed the real strength of both countries. Malaysia could get through the crisis in grace. Led by then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, Malaysia turned down IMF’s aid and advice. Indonesia plunged into deep crisis, first economic crisis and then followed by political crisis toppling President Soeharto. Since then Malaysia development slowed down but still gaining its stature, unfortunately Indonesia never comes back as Asian miracle country.

At present Malaysia’s income per capita is 3 times more than Indonesia’s. Malaysia is categorized as middle income country and for them it is time to talk about the next step.

Previously Malaysian strategy was to produce low added value goods. It worked and raised Malaysian living standard, and developed Petronas twin tower and Multimedia Super Corridor. But it does not work now. Logically speaking, only high price products can bring the workers high wages. High price products are only created by sustainable innovation. And innovation is a strange thing that cannot exist just because you want it to exist. Even in America the innovation spirit of Sillicon Valley cannot be easily cloned to other parts of America. Innovation is a mixed ingredient such as education, property rights, and crazy investor. It needs also people who has abundant creativity and love to take risks.

Malaysia has identified their situation and what they want to achieve. They realize they are caught in middle income trap and why it happened. They promulgate New Economic Model (NEM) to spur economic growth and reach developed nation in 2020 through innovation.

I am very sad about Indonesia situation. We are wasting time on law enforcement, basic economic policy direction, regional elections calamity, high chilly price, poor infrastructure, etc. In consequence Malaysians appear with the new stage of development and Indonesians still come out with proposal of poverty eradication after 65 year freedom.

Indonesian Rupiah Redenomination

The former Indonesian president, Megawati asked: "if we implement redenomination of thousand, how much will the value of Rp. 100 be? That was not a smart question from the ex-president. It is easy to explain: Rp. 100 equals 100 x 100 cent = 10.000 cents. Then the redenomination value of Rp. 100 – in case of redenomination by decreasing 3 zeroes – will be 10 cents.

The newly elected Central Bank governor, Darmin Nasution, has announced the long term plan of Central Bank to adjust the currency by deleting the thousand of current value. For instance Rp. 1000 will be Rp. 1. The goal is just to simplify the figures and redenomination will not have any effect to its value. On paper there will be no troubles at all about currency redenomination. In today's transaction we hardly see goods or services pricing at less than Rp. 500, let alone Rp. 100 as stated by Megawati.

Some experts say redenomination will make the transaction simpler and make the ATM machines have less burdensome. Certainly, it is not true. Both transactions and ATM machines' burden will be the same. In the new denomination, there will not be the notes of Rp. 100.000. Imagine, who will bring Rp. 100.000.000 in their pockets? Instead, the ATM machines will serve Rp. 50 replacing Rp. 50.000 and Rp. 100 replacing Rp. 100.000.

It is inflation that creating the weaker value of currency. And years after years, the figures will be bigger. In 1970's, the rich people is dubbed as a millionaire. And now if you have millions rupiah, you are not deemed as a rich people.

Redenomination is not a new policy. For the last 85 years, there are 50 countries implemented the redenomination of its currency. German was the first country to do this in 1923 in the wake of hyperinflation. The German's government deleted 12 zeroes of its value. Turkey adjusted its lira in 2005 by dumping 6 zeroes. Compared to Indonesia's plan cutting 3 zeroes, the central bank will cut less zeroes than Turkey and German.

So, as an idea, Indonesian rupiah redenomination is not wrong at all. And I think we should accept this idea, because too many figures in currency mean nothing. Pak Darmin, please go ahead and forget about Ibu Megawati's comment. Frankly speaking, Ibu Megawati is the one who is very afraid about redenomination, because her name will be Kilowati.

Indonesia’s Debt

I have seen a lot of debt-based project all across Indonesia. Thanks to abundance natural resources, Indonesia wean on debt of foreign funding agency to develop. The debt itself is neutral. It can add the capital to get more return. But if the debt is mismanaged then it is what I see on Indonesia’s debt: squandering money.

For sure, the debt has likely an impact to the economy. It was just because that money is poured directly into the economy activities. Once the debt was disbursed, the demand of goods and services would increase and more jobs would be created. But unfortunately, the debt-caused economic growth has nothing to do with the goal of the project.

And sometimes the government has no vision on the project goal and the holistic grasp on the connections between projects and its priority. For instance community-based water supply and sanitation project was wrong in terms of priority. Everything starts from prosperity, and others will follow. It is just to make people rich first and naturally they can afford to buy water supply from private company and adequate sanitation equipment. Doing the reverse will result in endless circle, the poverty lead to the worse water supply and sanitation and the government’s aid – not the water supply and sanitation facilities from the debt – will be sustainable. Consider, the debt was earmarked for supporting private sector to build industry and the income of poor people raised, and then invite the private investor to provide water supply.

Peter Drucker said:” developing nations don't need government-to-government aid or grandiose World Bank projects but, instead, partnerships with private enterprises in industrial nations.” I absolutely agree with this Guru of Management Gurus. The right usage of debt is to support business by developing industrial zones, constructing the best roads, bridges, ports and airports, providing the easiest and friendly regulation, and last but not least, training officers to serve the investors all across the world. It is investors creating money for our people. Unless we find oil reserves as much as in Saudi Arabia, then it is the only way to enhance public incomes.

Indonesia’s DOSCapital

What is happening in today's Indonesian politics is a confirmation to the DOSCapital theory from Thomas Friedman's Lexus and Olive Tree. The theory explains the must-existed tools in a country to succeed in globalization. Those are hardware covering free market system, democratic elections, etc. and software including rules of law, government officer's capacity, etc. Only if a country has both, the age of globalization will benefit its people. When the tools are lopsided then the globalization turns the democracy to be the kleptocracy (analogy: the state-of- the-art computer without software) or the system will collapse (analogy: the old computer with the state-of-the-art software).

Indonesia has all instruments of democratic system. The leaders are regularly elected by the most-advanced system. The balancing institution is working so well so that the executives cannot run the government well. We have all law enforcement powerful bodies such as Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center (PPATK), Constitutional Court (MK). But it seems useless. Elections do not reflect meritocracy. The singers, entertainers, comedians turned to lawmakers. Law enforcement is still dull. The corruptors' fightback is at alarming rate. The chief of KPK has been put into jail. The others are accused by fake evidence of bribery. In short we have the hardware of democracy but we have no software to implement it.

And after 12 years, we realize that democracy turns out to be just another system. Democracy is only a tool, just a tool that cannot ensure the result unless you fulfill the conditions. Our system and "the man behind the gun" are so weak that the free market system implementation does not favor the result. The corruption is still rampant. The economy is still sluggish. In terms of people's prosperity, Pak Harto was doing better than all his successors.

Back to Thomas Friedman. In developed western countries, the system encourages people to do their best and give them reward by what they produce. The people who win the races are Bill Gates, Andy Groove, Steve Jobs who create wealth and high quality jobs by using their own talents not by special license from government, or bribing the officials. In DOSCapital 6.0 (the highest of system ranking), meritocracy prevails, the advanced high added value goods and services thrives.

In the new comers of democracy, the first thing emerging is politics, while economy activities subject to politics. Instead of supporting economy, politics becomes the vehicle for economic victory. If you want to be rich don't try hard like Bill Gates just become politicians. In contrast with the stabilized democracy make the politics shrinks and economy grows.

So we see that the Indonesia's local government does not encourage business by imposing heavy tax and levies. The lawmakers does not concern with efforts to support and create business. They are occupied by trivial matters such as aspiration funds and now aspiration funds for housing. Both of them do not understand that their main task is to support businesses that create job for the people. The more added value business thrives the more prosperity comes. That has happened in the developed countries and we have to follow that path because there is no other choice.

No Matter Black or White

Deng Xiao Ping: "It doesn't matter a white cat or black cat, as long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat."

The 2009 presidential election had spent as much as Rp. 50 trillion. For the next 5 years (2010 -2014) another Rp. 15 trillion will be "wasted". For the sake of democracy, in terms of budgeting allocation priority, we sacrifice our people from lack of education, malnutrition, indecent housing.

The outstanding different between our fledgling democratic elections and Western's established democratic elections is the party's distinguished character.

In the paragon of democracy, in the western countries, we can see the different party with the different character and idea. For instance, in United States, Republic Party is the party with idea of no or less state intervention, while in contrast Democratic Party more receptive with the big role of government. Republicans deny the abortion, homosexual, while Democrats deem those as the rights to choose.

We have no such different characters of parties like that. Can we distinguish Golkar Party, Democratic Party and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)? They are all the same of no character. They always waffle about how to develop Indonesia, but their program are normative and standard such eradicate poverty, create jobs, promote people's health status, etc.

So, if they are the same, why do we need elections? Eko Patrio from National Mandate Party (PAN), Tantowi Yahya from Golkar Party and Rachel Maryam from The Greater Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) have no different ideas (if they have one!) and position in making law.

In my opinion we don't need too much election, because the parties are the same in the blur substance and elusive agenda. Please stop wasting money anymore! What we should encourage is meritocracy in the state system, let the best and brightest minds manage the bureaucracy.

Let us take Singapore as an example. With only single party really exists, the election is only to confirm the development achievement. The government run the state on meritocracy basis. The government recruits the best students to join the bureaucracy and give them the best education abroad and let them experience government affairs for at least 15 years and get the brightest ones to be leaders. This system leads Singapore to be one of the cleanest and well-run bureaucracy in the world.

So my fellow countrymen do still believe in or support those nonsense elections for our prosperity?

Indonesia’s Democrazy

The government will spend as much as Rp 15 trillion during 2010 – 2014 Regional Election all across Indonesia. Is it worth for us to spend such big amount of money for the dream of prosperity?

In Indonesia, democratic instrument such as election, freedom of speech, balance of power turns into political fad and chaos. Election becomes spending spree activities, freedom of speech leads to freedom of violence, balance of power means no one has responsibility of anything.

We didn't invent democracy so that we often lost the essence of democracy. It is freedom with responsible, rule of law, and above all, meritocracy have made democracy is the best choice of state system. However in case of your citizenry is not law-abiding one, just forget the democracy. Your leaders cannot make a system to ensure that the best and brightest mind will lead the way and manage the bureaucracy, and then democracy doesn't fit.

Democracy is only a tool brings people to prosperity. And sometimes you should take the West's democracy recipe with a grain of salt. If you try to be a copy cat of this then you have the different result with the rich Western countries. Instead of public order and high income, you get the rampant corruption, wild demonstration, election disputes and everything that eventually will hamper the development. So why should we embrace democracy?

Moreover, Indonesia is a developing country, so the development should be guided coherent policy from central and local government. On contrary, Indonesia's democracy prompts the overlapping policy and even confusing policy because they have their own agenda.

So what is election, especially regional election, for? First, it will be the disturbance of national policy. Second, in terms of Indonesia's need, local government is the pivotal institution which manages directly the people. So the leader should be the experienced one, fully understand the problem and have a remarkable track record. As mentioned above, meritocracy is the only way for us to have a good government and governance.

My brainchild is we only have one election for the five years' time. It is presidential election along with 33 gubernatorial elections. While the district and city's leaders will be appointed by governor. This system will simplify the elections and ensure the similar direction and synergy of national development.

Indonesia’s Bad Losers

Indonesia's fledgling democratic countries are rife with election disputes. The pattern is always the same: the vote-rigging occurred, the losers will blame the winner and mobilize the mass to hold demonstration. The losers never concede defeat.

However the losers can be exonerated when it comes to messy election administration and bad dispute solving system. However, the losers sometimes exaggerate the rigging issues. For instance, in 2009 presidential election, SBY team had been accused playing citizen administration all across Indonesia. Certainly, it was impossible, since all the governors and regents are derived from different parties, not only SBY's Democratic Party. So it is hardly to believe that they obeyed the SBY's command to cheat.

Our politicians should grow up to face defeat boldly. America's democracy teaches us how beaten presidential candidate make a speech to accept the result and congratulate the winner. Even when there is something wrong about the process, they put the public interest in the first place and not to sacrifice democracy by prolonged disputes. Richard Nixon neglected the then-US President, Eisenhower to file the case of election fraud against John F Kennedy. Al Gore did the same against George W Bush.

The Indonesia's losers should learn why in sports especially in soccer, the referee's decision is uncompromised. In 2010 World Cup, Lampard's goal is a true goal, but the referee had decided it was not a goal and everyone had to accept this, even at last we know that the decision was wrong. It's a game that cannot be interrupted by prolonged dispute because it will ruin the games mood.

And so does the protracted election disputes. The people will be divided according to candidates. The violence is rampant. The election turns to violent drama instead of legal process to choose the leader. Democracy loses its beauty.

Pak Harto and Oil Price

Until now Indonesians are still arguing never ending story whether Pak Harto is a hero or corruptive leader. During Pak Harto's terms we see a lot of development result such as infrastructure, industry, economic growth, more educated people, etc. Why can't all this things make him a hero? Some might say that the Indonesia's development benefitting his family's wealth development. Indonesia's economy is governed by his inner circle. However how is about the development presented by high economic growth? Can we appreciate this?

In terms of oil price, now we can explain why Indonesia developed so fast during Pak Harto's stint. Oil price did matters! Pak Harto can develop Indonesia because of good oil price. And later Pak Harto could only be toppled thanks to low oil price.

It was American bestseller author, Pulitzer-winning Thomas Friedman who suggests the relation of oil price and dictatorship or democracy in First Law of Petropolitics. The idea is during the oil price hike, the democracy will be hit and the authoritarian regimes blossom. When oil price is going low, the democracy rise. It occured in Indonesia and oil price definetely determined Pak Harto's faith. 

Let see http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm.

During 1974 - 1985 oil price soared above USD 40 per barrel. It was because of oil embargo by Arabs following Yom Kippur war between the Arabs and Israel and Iran-Iraq war. And then it tumbled hovering USD 20 per barrel until the end of financial crisis 1999. And the the price increased again and peaked in 2007 and then went down again during financial crisis 2008 – 2009. But it remains above USD 40 per barrel.

From this data we can see why Indonesia develop so fast during the oil boom years 1974 – 1985. All national program had been succcesfully implemented. Indonesia was laudable for its rice self-sufficient. The population could be controlled by massive family planning program. Even we can designed a plane, CN 235 in 1983. Certainly Pak Harto is also a good administrator, so that the oil money was spent wisely.

And then the situation is turnabout. The oil price plunged and ever reached under USD 20 per barrel during financial crisis 1997-1998. And Pak Harto had to stepped down in 1998.

But Pak Harto had still some credits. Thanks to lower oil price , the government scambled to enhance non oil and gas industry and it worked. Indonesia manage to transform from agriculture-based country to industry-based one. In 1993 the agriculture sector contribute to GDP more than the industry sector, but in 1993 the industry sector had surpassed the agriculture sector. And according to UNIDO criteria, Indonesia included in industrial country since since the industry sector made up more than 20% of GDP.
However this achievement was not enough. The still-fledgling industrial country was not strong enough to tackle the financial crisis. At last the government yielded to high inflation and the government fell. And after Pak Harto fell, Indonesia's democracy rose.

The relation between oil price and the succes and failure of Pak Harto explains as follows. When the oil price high, the government had enough money to implement the development program, while the oil price as low as USD 20 per barrel, the luck went away.

Indonesia's oil has nearly run out. After becoming oil net importer country, Indonesia has withdrawn from OPEC since 2008. Instead of a bad things, it is absolutely good news. Now we have no choice to grow industry, innovation, education etc. for survival.

Led by Critics

Who is the real leader guiding the Indonesians' faith? It is demonstration, criticism, protest, etc.

Bibit-Chandra would go to jail, unless the massive criticism emerged against the Police Headquarters and AGO.Tempo journalists would be arrested unless the strong criticism appeared from civil society. And recently, the government's real planned tariff hike as much as 39% -101% get lowered to maximum 18% also because of criticism.

Even our previous presidents such as Bung Karno and Pak Harto can only be forced to step down through demonstration. And few days ago I watched on TV that the demonstrator forced the election commission to sign declaration of something as to what they want. We are the third biggest democratic country but we are not civilized in making public decision as if there's no rule of law. The only rule is the power of mass, demontrations and criticism.

Is there any leader in this country has inner power to decide something base on logics and remain persistence to what he/she believe?

It was former Jakarta Governor, Sutiyoso when he insisted to go on the plan of busway despite massive criticism. He could manage any resistance and continue constructing the busway infrastructure. At last some Jakartans realize that busway is a good solution for transportation problem in Jakarta. Now Jakarta Governor Fauzi Bowo can't maintain the momentum and let the private car and motorcycle fouls the busway system so that it becomes ineffective.

In a similar vein, former vice president Jusuf Kalla (JK) had also shown us the power of will. It was his brilliant brainchild to convert the household energy from kerosene to gas. At that time the problem is scarcity of gas because of the massive shift. JK can handle this quickly and the government could save money of subsidy. Now the government has no leader with the same character of JK. The good idea turns into disaster. The gas canister seems to be bombs sent to every Indonesian's household. It is absolutely only technical problems that can't be addressed well by the government.

Strong leadership as performed by Sutiyoso and JK is what we really need in Indonesia. We need leaders with strong characters to tackle any criticism and demonstration.

Mr. President, We Need Your Bold Action

President SBY made symbolic action against corruption by visiting assaulted ICW activist Tama. Previously, in the same vein President established Team 8 to investigate the alleged Bibit-Chandra of bribery case. And President also asked for outside court settlement for Bibit-Chandra's case only after the polling showed that people felt the government cannot handle this case.

If I have to give evaluation the way President did to the cabinet ministers, then I will give red mark to President in terms of law enforcement.

The style of SBY's leadership concerning with law enforcement is 'not to interfere'. Can he do that? Of course not. I know the President is very good person and he by no means support the evil. However the President's inaction means indirectly support them. The corruptor camp will hail no bold action against them.

The assault on ICW activist and Tempo magazine headquarters are not coincidence. Ridiculously, the President said it was a third party benefitting the situation and asked the police to arrest them. Certainly it is impossible that the incidents have not any relations with the case of suspicious accounts of several higher ranking police officers. And it is not logic to let the tainted institution to solve the problem embroiled them. And worse, Corruption Eradication Commission has declared that they will not take up the investigation. It seems they have been intimidated by previous traumatic experience against the police.

President SBY is likely a good singer and song writer. His heart tends to be soft. But this time we need his bold action to enforce law. We don't need his symbolic visit to Tama. We need the real action to command the impartial investigation against the suspicious officers' accounts. Otherwise many people will think he has no capability to punish his disgraced subordinate. And once again 'not interfere' means to support the misconduct parties.

World Soccer and Us

As happened in any other places in the world, we have also World Cup fever here. For a month Indonesia's newspaper, television, facebook, daily talks are dominated by world cup event. Impromptu soccer experts derived from politicians, lawmakers, artists are rampant in every television program. They gave analysis vehemently as if they are Franz Beckenbauer or Carlos Bilardo. And the cafes are full with people watching the game jointly. In short, our citizenry love soccer very much.

Unfortunately until now all we can do is watching the game and giving nonsense comments about the game. The performance of our national team is very bad so the fledging team such as Laos can beat us. Even if we love soccer, we cannot manage every aspect of soccer. Many players seem to be a gifted fighter instead of soccer player. Indonesia's soccer referee is not the most powerful man in the field commanding the game as we see in South Africa. The referee here can be beaten if you are not satisfied with his decision. The police cannot control hooligans fouled the public properties. Worse yet, there is no sign of soccer resurrection. (However resurrection is not the correct word of our national soccer, because until now we have no significant achievement even in Asia tournament). The national soccer association, PSSI, is still in doubt in terms of capacity to bring us any achievement.

Let us find the solution or the cause.

As far as potential players are concerned, there is no reason that we have no such good kids to be great player. We can get the talents all across archipelago. An ounce Singapore's population can select 11 players, let alone the 4th populous country in the world. If we have had the players and then we need a good system to forge the local talents. The question arises whether our national team players reflect the meritocracy of players. Are the kids of natural talent and physical fitness from remote areas in Maluku or Papua have a chance to show their skills and be intensively trained in school of soccer?

Our soccer competition has been held regularly. It is good for every player to hone their skill. We also invite the 2nd or 3 rd level of players from Brazil, Argentina or Africa to join the league. While the 1st level of theirs go to Europe. However, to Indonesia regular league with harsh competition don't have significant correlation with our national soccer team performance. Compared to Singapore, their teams have the same of skills or even better than us. So our busy league has failed to transform the players to be international player.

Now speaking about the coach. Let me tell you something that we have a big problem in the player's basic skill. Imagine that world class-coach Jose Mourinho manages our national team. What will happen? Absolutely, Mourinho might have failed in the beginning of his stint. Why? it's because our players has not passed the basic skill need including dribbling, passing, kicking the ball to the right place and right time. While the coaches in storied nations grapple with the strategy to put the right man in the right place and how to play using the width of field, etc. So you can't have a strategy unless you have many skilful players.

In a nutshell, in order to have dignity in soccer: first find the talented kids, second hone their skills as if they are the friend of the ball and they can do anything with the ball, and the last invite the best strategy coach to create team character and identity like Johan Cruyff create Barcelona as attacking team.

Can They Blame Jabulani?

If you can't dance don't blame the floor. If you can't win in the World Cup match don't put the scapegoat on Adidas-made ball Jabulani. It seems disproportionate as there is too much complaint on the high-tech ball.

The goals scored in this first round matches is only 25, compared to 39 and 42 in Germany 2006 and Japan-South Korea 2002 World Cup, respectively. Is this justified the less goals due to this damned Jabulani? However, statistics say that this first round average goal of 2.1 is nearly the same with average goal of 2.21 in Italy 1990 World Cup. The then-less goal is analyzed as a result of defensive playing.

In my opinion the combination of defensive tactics and the same level of skill among the teams contribute utmost to the drought of goals. We can see how Japan thrashed Denmark and how the top-notch teams such as Italy must go home earlier. The players across the world have honed the skills in the same primary league in Europe, so they are quite familiar with up-to-date strategy of football.

Had Jabulani is a problem, it might be so much goals instead of less. Why? The goalies would always fumble in catching the ball! Every shooting to the goal area will have a high probability to be a goal. Moreover, I watched the match Netherlands versus Japan in which the Dutch had the ball possession of 70%. It means the Dutch can control Jabulani. If the ball is so wild, it will never happen that a team has a lopsided possession. And the last argument will go to the result of the matches. Until now we see no surprising result. Even some second-round playing teams dubbed as underdogs, they have played the good games and deserves to pass the first round. If the ball uncontrollable, then the matches will be in a mess, the result will be arbitrary.

So just go on playing with Jabulani, stop complaining anything and give us the best show.

Where Will We Go?

As a nation we do not know where we will go in this turbulent world. I see nothing of clearly, loudly communicated plan from our leader, SBY. Until now I have never been impressed by anything what he had done for his 2-term mandate in terms of what this nation want to achieve.

SBY's pro growth, pro poor, pro job is too abstract for me. It is far cry from we really need now: simple realistic plan, but considerably implemented. Lack of vision, make us mire in the crazy idea of pork barrel. Since the term of presidency is only 5 years, the plan needs quick and smart actions to ensure people seeing the result.

Among the 3 pros, pro job should be the first thing to be handled. The growth we need is the quality growth that leads the jobs absorption. The poverty will be eradicated if the government can provide jobs directly or indirectly with the adequate salary to live on. We don't need the statistics telling us that the employment is full or the unemployment less than 10%, we absolutely need is how to make a rapid shift from the low added value of farming-oriented jobs to industrial jobs and then the next to higher added value of service industry. That is the path should be got through. And there is no other path to step based on Indonesia's situation.

The government should formulate the program to be industry-based country. And the rational way is to invite the foreigner through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). To lure the foreign fund of investment we should give them best infrastructure, red-tape-free administration, tax holiday, etc. And we should have known that there is a lot of choice for investors to put in their money. And what we have done with FDI is very poor. Data showed that Indonesia lagged behind in terms of FDI absorption. The ratio of Indonesia's FDI to GNP is 5%, compared to China 11%, Vietnam 55%. We have a lot of space, a lot of variety of energy, a lot of cheap workforce, but we see only few of economic zones. We have abandoned this competitive advantage. It indicates that the government has no real agenda to make pro job happen.

In a nutshell, our prosperity begins with shifting of farming jobs to industrial jobs – Pak Harto had ever had and had ever carried out this vision. The SBY administration should begin the massive program of industry-led development. Only the government with bold action and do something meaningful remains memorable. Hopefully SBY listen to my advice :-) or the next president will.

Spend or Not To Spend

The world's economic crisis has not gone yet. Many economies are still crippling and trying to find a new way to boost growth. The standard policy during economic crisis is to give stimulus and unemployment benefit. But now, the still-sluggish economy faces a new-arising crisis of swelling fiscal deficit which has claimed a victim, Greece. And Greek generous pension system has now been under fire for its contribution to the large deficit. (see Reference #1)

Large deficit debacle of Greece spooked many countries all across the world. Many countries from United Kingdom to Japan is now controlled by deficit hawks. Under the fiscal retrenchment action, the government budget will be shrunken.

Now the government have 2 alternatives of action: stop its stimulus, unemployment benefit and shift to parsimony or go on because of still-sluggish economy?

Apparently, noted economists have different answers.

The answer of Nobel Prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman: continue spending! The government should help the unemployment and continue the economic stimulus until the certain good economic condition and then save the money. In a nutshell, spent now, save later. But when is the perfect time to save? The right time is when the Federal Reserve has traction on economy, so it can reduce the interest rate to offset the rising of tax and spending cuts. Now the Feds can do nothing with its instrument because the interest rate is nearly zero. (see Reference #2)

In contrast, Harvard University Professor, Alberto Alesina has different prescription. To face the large deficit budget, the fiscal retrenchment is the right answer. The idea is the government's lower spending need lower tax and as the consequence it will lead the rising demand. There have been mountains of evidence. Goldman Sachs economist Broadbent and Daly researched 44 large fiscal adjustments in 24 advanced economies since 1975 concluded that reducing expenditure by 1% boosted growth by 0.6%. (see reference #3)

Let us see who is right, who is wrong. In my opinion Krugman's suggestion is more plausible.

Reference:

1. http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/02/greeces_generous_pensions
   
2. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/21/opinion/21krugman.html?ref=paulkrugman
   
3. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-21/cameron-bets-on-prosperity-from-austerity-while-obama-pushes-more-stimulus.html
   

Pork Barrel Initiative

It is imperative to help people, let alone you are a lawmaker, but it is more important to help them in rational way and for long term sustainability.

The Golkar Party proposed initiative, dubbed pork barrel, raised many questions. It is much condemned, but it is still rolling down due to SBY's indecisiveness. (see Reference #1). The idea helping people by direct intervention seems ridiculous, because it is not their main job. The lawmakers' much expected job is to make good law and oversee the government's job. If they can do this well, they have already fulfilled our hopes.

Our country has been transforming itself from centralized development to decentralization one. It has been done since 1999 and until now problems still appears. We call it decentralization, but why 70% our budget is controlled by central government. (see Reference #2). This imbalance budget shed light on still-uneven development. This is one root of problems that has to be firstly handled.

And even though that 30% of central government budget will be allocated to regional government, the new anxiety emerges. The Supreme Audit Agency, BPK's report shows most of local government fails to perform satisfactory financial statement. (see Reference #3)

Moreover, we have several overlapping of budget and development due to our still-improving system. Until now it is not clear who is really in charge in province. Is it the directly-elected governor who actually has no area but has own development program on it or is it the also-directly-elected regent/mayor who has the real area and own development program. The theory it can be done by dividing the job, but the practice shows it can't. My friend in a Ministry told me that overlapping happened. Some equipment from the central government's budget had been sent arbitrarily to a regency and the regency's officers did not know what to do with the equipment because they have no program on it.

In short, many problems have arisen concerning with regional development and they have to be handled right off the bat. So lawmakers, if you want to contribute something during your term, just use your own 'tools and vehicles' to make or change law. Those actions will be more useful for our country rather than to give money or projects directly to your constituent and inappropriately hope that they will vote for you in the next election.

Reference:

1. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/06/21/golkar-continue-push-%E2%80%98pork-barrel%E2%80%99-initiative.html
   
2. http://cetak.kompas.com/read/xml/2010/05/30/04524053/.sistem.anggaran.belum.dukung.otonomi
   
3. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/03/17/inconsistency-enhancing-accountability.html
   

Adding Salt to Seawater

Democratic Party should be praised for 2 (two) things, namely: (i) its process of chairman election and (ii) the result itself. The process shows that the party members can vote on their own candidate freely without intervension and guidance from its patron, SBY. SBY-approved candidate, Andi Mallarangeng has been abandoned by the party members. The democrats show us the real democracy. And the party' last congress resulted in the new direction of the county's leadership. The newly elected party chairman, Anas Urbaningrum is young and dynamic representing regeneration in the party leadership. No other party does the same. And Anas is the next Democratic presidential might-wannabe. Despite this is an internal affairs, but we are yearning of the new leader for a better tomorrow of Indonesia. We have fed up with the old generation.

The downside of the story is the absence of meritocracy in the party development.

Recently, some of activists, bureaucrats, professionals come flocking to join the Demoratic Party. It seems everybody loves a winner. The liberal Muslim scholar, Ulil Abshar Abdalla will join the party and so will General Elections Commission member, Andi Nurpati. But what raises my eyebrow is Todung Mulya Lubis. I wonder why he does not apply for Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) chairman instead of joining Democrats. KPK, rather than Democratic Party, needs him a lot. To give a help to the winning party is like to add the salt in the seawater.

The nascent democracy sometimes appears comical. The party is not developed by system, where patchwork rather than meritocracy prevails. The popular outsiders are invited to strengthen the party. Can't we see the party's program to groom its leader from insiders as a result of the long-term forming of cadres?

Maradona

It is difficult to answer this question: who is the best ever player in world? Is it Pele, Franz Beckenbauer, Maradona, or Zinedine Zidane? Certainly this question is invalid, because it is not fair to compare them who played in different situation and era. It is better to say that they are considered as the best player at their times. Are you satisfied with this anwer?

Pele is the best when we talk about 3 times of winning World Cup trophy in 1958, 1962 and 1970. Beckenbauer is the best when we remember how he lead German to beat the much tipped Netherlands led by much praised Johan Cruyff in the 1974 World Cup final. Zidane is the best when we saw him playing attractively for host-country France to grasp the World Cup in 1998.

In my opinion, Maradona is the best. Yes I have the bias judgment here. Frankly speaking I have hardly seen Pele and Beckenbauer playing – despite I have seen some footage – as I saw a dazzling Maradona. I never forgot that if he got the ball to dribble then at least 4 opponent players came to guard him or Maradona will rampage their defense. The England knew this in 1986 World Cup, when Maradona could dribble the ball through 5 English players before conquering the goalkeeper Peter Shilton. And every time he got a chance and shot it to the goal, then it would be the dangerous shooting. There is no player ever like this.

Even Michael Platini praised Maradona when he was asked who is the best between Maradona and 1998 World Cup winner, Zidane. Platini answered what Zidane does with a ball, Maradona could do with an orange. I don't know whether it is a real compliment or maybe Platini was merely jealous to Zidane since he never appeared as the champion of the World Cup.

Now Maradona comes back to 2010 World Cup as a coach of Argentina. He pursues the record as the player and the coach winning the trophy the way Beckenbauer did in 1990 World Cup. Should Maradona succeed in this tournament, then I never cast doubt that Maradona is the best in the football history.